Brickell real estate trends have shifted back to new construction rekindling demand for prime Brickell and Downtown Miami Luxury Real Estate.

A lot of attention has been given to the new condo boom within the Brickell and Downtown Miami urban cores. If there was ever any doubt of Brickell's incredible untapped value, let it be removed by the ever resilient Miami real estate market. Our clients have been invested into these markets for many years and it's gratifying to see Brickell and other communities continue to mature.

But what about the resale market? You know, the buildings that were built in the last cycle and those prior to that. How have they fared in this new resurgence? Are they losing value? Are real estate resale inventories skyrocketing or plummeting because of shifting demands for new real estate developments?

We took a small sample of the zip code 33131 (Green Shaded Area on above map image) which is again near the epicenter of the latest Brickell Real Estate boom. In our sample we looked at a years worth of closings (April 2013 - April 2014) to see how the resale market has fared. In this sample we only looked at condominiums and no other property types for re-sale in the area.

Are Brickell Real Estate Trends Positive?

The short answer is yes. The chart below (Click to enlarge), gives a few hints. The first takeaway is that resale condo prices per square foot in the 33131 zip code and Brickell Avenue area have continued a steady rise up until March of this year as noted by the blue moving average line on the chart. The green line at the bottom of the chart shows how each successive months resale inventory in the Brickell Condo market has continued to shrink.

Could new construction hurt the Brickell resale market?

Short answer: Maybe...It could be argued that the there is a potential dip in resale values coming as a result of all these new developments hitting a critical mass. I am inclined to not totally agree with this notion. The cost of new construction, land, amenities and the purchasing models being used by most real estate developers today, places the cost of these projects into a different economic bracket altogether. Also, within this specific zip code there has been no major spike in inventory as we have seen in a few other places just north of Downtown Miami.

In addition, there is some seasonality to take into account and also the fact that short sales and bank owned properties are still a very real part of the resale landscape. Thankfully, Short Sales and REO's are becoming a smaller part of the Brickell real estate market but they can still have an impact on the moving average.

Overall, Brickell Real Estate trends are positive for the condo resale market and have been growing in value at a steady rate. With a continued easing on condo lending and the entrance of more lenders, we expect the market to remain stable.

Is the real estate market continuing to Improve?

Here are 7 info graphics and their importance on current real estate trends not just for the South Florida Luxury Real Estate Market but real estate markets in general which is provided by Emh3.com Luxury Real Estate Brokers and CoreLogic.

New Home Sales Trends

In this graphic we see new home sales showing volume and median price from January 2002 to the first quarter of this year. What is interesting in this New Home Sales Trends report is that current median prices are actually higher than their peak during the euphoria of 2005/06. What keeps this from becoming an alarming statistic is the Volume data that accompanies the graphic showing historically low monthly sales.  This reviewers take is that we are in a very controlled slow growth mode on new home residential real estate sales. In addition, a good portion of new home sales are in the upper price points which also skews the median price upward. The scenario of limited new projects and pricier developments has driven market values on New Home Sales in a manner that should see some price correction or adjustment downward as more new home projects begin coming into the market.

The next graphic shows the price point of sales as a percentage of total sales.

Here we see how 200k+ market (a gigantic subset, should be broken down further) was the main driving force in the last collapse and that it currently is again taking the lions share of sales nationally. What is interesting to note is that the 0-100k sales share really took off during the recover period up till about the middle of last year. A strong possibility is the downward price pressure during the recovery period placing 200k+  properties within the 100k price tier which could lead to a mistaken push for lower income housing on a national level when in fact it was distressed and REO inventory changing hands.

Distressed Sales as a percentage of total sales volume

Some good news from this graphic is that short sales continue to decline from their September 2012 high nationally and are retreating into the sub 3% of the market realm. REO sales continue to be a big part of the real estate sales landscape though. At current rates, it would be expected that REO properties will become less than 10% of the overall market by the begin or middle of next year putting it at twice it's historical highs from 2006.

Distressed Sale Share for the 25 highest rate States

Like it or not, the state of Florida was one of the top Distressed sales markets and remains high compared to other states who also felt the brunt of the most recent economic correction. A silver lining is that little red dot you will find on the line that represents Florida's activity compared to other high incident states. Florida still ranks in the top five on a percentage basis but when taken into account our overall market growth compared to other states, this is not as painful.

Serious Mortgage Delinquencies for the 25 highest Rate States.

Here is a telling measure of whether or not we will see more shorts sales, foreclosures, modifications, etc. The answer is yes. we are going to keep seeing these events. Florida, finally is showing some easing of it's statewide delinquency rate as it begins to near 10% which is off of it's historical high of almost 12%. With the current government programs to refinance, consolidate, and reduce principal and interest payments beginning to work, it is believed that the we should see fewer short sales come up and a continuing reduction of REO properties holdings.

30 year mortgage instrument being replaced by shorter term refinancing

Over 40% of the mortgage refinance market is trending toward shorter term financing. This is a clear sign that Americans are becoming more aware and active participants of more aggressive payment strategies for their real estate investments. What is also on the rise but not represented in this graphic is the 40 year mortgage term. Lenders have opened up the possibility to lowering your monthly payments by amortizing your mortgage over a longer period of time much in the same manner as Europe has done for decades.

Overall Mortgage Performance compared to foreclosures and delinquent debt.

Some positive signs from the mortgage front can be seen in this graphic showing 90+ day delinquent filings dropping nationally. Foreclosures also keep moving downward on the whole. There is an uptick since February of last year in REO activity. The REO activity can be interpreted in a number of ways. The courts fast tracking old case logs. Lenders clearing out REO portfolios they have been holding on to (known by some as shadow inventory).

Overall we see marked improvement and stability both nationally but also within the South Florida real estate markets. We see this both in lender activity which is increasing both for national as well as foreign buyers. We also see buyers increasingly interested in lending options and being more risk averse than in the past.

How to buy luxury real estate using the geography of beer.

Okay, truth be told, we don't literally expect everyone to buy their next luxury home from us based on beer ALONE...  Though we are always happy to share a pint in the process or after. But, we do find it fantastic how Matthew Zook and Ate Poorthuis were able to take geocoded data (hashtags and the like) on twitter to build these maps.

The geography of beer maps were built using data from 2012 and comprise about a million geocoded beer tweets during that time.

Apparently, down here in South Florida we are quite fond of Yuengling? Considering that it is the oldest operating brewery in the United States having been established in 1829, might mean we South Floridian's have a discerning taste for beer? It could also mean some great online marketing was taking place in South Florida. In either outcome, it helped shape the geography of beer map that you see here. For the record, I'm sticking with a discerning palate...

As luxury real estate data junkies, we can't wait to figure out how to integrate this type of data into the analytics we hope to be sharing in the not to distant future.

Here is a little more information about the folks who came up with the geography of beer.

What would it look like if you could view the growth of a major city over the course of almost 200 years from above? Well, now you have your answer? These three videos show the almost Rorschach inkblot like growth of major cities around the world. Granted, the symmetry might be lacking when compared to a Rorschach test but the beauty and expansion is just captivating.

How Cities Grow and seeing it play out in this manner is interesting because it makes you think about the Topography of the land and how it helps or impedes growth. Then, couple that with master planning (Paris is a great example of a controlled growth model) and you begin to see an intersection of man and his surroundings collide. Let's not even get into the discussion of natural resources.

Then throw in developers, cheap land, incentives to build or grow from municipalities to states and things get really interesting. Also, it's stunning the speed with which growth takes place as you start to get closer to the present day images of these cities. Without a doubt urban living is hitting an apex of sorts. On the flip side you could also argue that rural living simply was in the way of incredible expansive urban growth.

Whatever the reason  how cities grow, check out the videos below and hit us up in the comment section. Credit to those who took the time to create this great animation and the thinking behind it is at after the videos.

 Los Angeles:

Sao Paolo:

Paris:

Below you can learn more about How Cities Grow

Initial Credit goes to GIZMODO and the author of their article for tipping us off. From there we head over to the Stern School at NYU where the Urbanization Project that spearheaded and helped fund this project is located. We then end up at the page of Patrick Lamson-Hall (A Research Scholar at NYU) where links to the YouTube videos here are also posted. Finally, after a little more digging, we land at the Lincoln Institutes Atlas of Urban Expansion where you can download data on over 130 cities in PDF form. Sadly, no one has done this work for South Florida or Miami but it would be great if they did. Oh, don't forget the fine folks over in Quito, Ecuador who put the videos together!

It was reported a few days back that a home in California was sold for over $102,000,000.00 dollars! The Buyer (A Billionaire from France) paid cash for the property. So, what does $102,000,000.00 get you in California? You get a 4.6 acre 50,000 square foot estate with a Beverly Crest Address that lies between Beverly Hills and Holmby Hills. Not bad...

The home, of course, comes with everything  you can possibly imagine and few things you might not have thought of.

Alternatively, you could shoot over to the north east coast of the US and purchase a 50 acre 15,000 square foot mansion on pristine waterfront overlooking Long Island Sound in Greenwich. Asking Price? $190,000,000.00

So, how does the most expensive real estate in South Florida stack up? Well, actually not bad! Depending on your perspective and net worth, we're a bargain of sorts. Curiously, right now condominiums in South Florida are pricing out higher than estates or mansions. It would seem South Florida Condos are headed the way of Manhattan condo prices which are also in the $100,000,000.00+ range.

Take a look below to see which homes made the list of the most expensive real estate in South Florida. It's a regularly updating list so you won't miss a beat.

Go Here to see the list. It's updated hourly. 

How Open is your cities public records and information?

I am something of a data junkie. This list which is part of US City Open Data Census Meta strives to open up and make available as much information as possible so that people can make informed decisions about where they are going to move and what are the things that might affect where they live, work, etc. It's a very ambitious project and it is something you can actually take part in by visiting the link above.

Miami made it onto the list at number 15 which is not bad given the rancorous perception of our cities politics. Not surprisingly the City by the Bay scored the top spot on almost all criteria.

As a luxury real estate broker anything that empowers my clients to be able to know more about where they live or are thinking of going to is absolutely necessary.

Miami Crime Map That Updates Regularly

For all you Dragnet Fans and budding PI's here is a link to a miami crime map solution. I thought this would be an interesting link for those persons looking into buying real estate in the Miami area and wanting to know about crime in the area. It's an interactive map showing all types of criminal activity with easy to read icons and descriptions and the areas where they happened.

As and FYI, the Miami Crime Map does have links to other municipalities that participate in this program throughout the United States.

Click HERE to jump to the map.

Update:

I took a deeper look and found the following links that are also active with varying degrees of success in mapping. Try the following links for specific communities. You might have to dig around the user interface but it might yield the information you are looking for.

Crime Reports . Com Nice clean interface but did not load data properly. Would love to see this interface improve. Also using the same interface and data sets is Crimemapping.com

Spot Crime I like this one in that it loaded data and you could search almost any area. Just type in the zip code for the best results. Too many adds.

Sex Offenders Map Crime reports also has this feature but these folks focus on this as their main service.

Miami Dade County Crime Mapping Software: This should be the mother of all databases for crime statistics for all cities within Miami-Dade County.  You might have issues when loading crime statistics within a specific city but in general it's very comprehensive system though a bit slow.

There are more sites out there that offer much of the same each with it's own take on the crime mapping theme. You mileage will vary...

If you find a good site pass it on and we will post it!

Update #2

I received a posting from someone in the support section of raids online claiming a similar product. I took a peek and have to say that they actually have a pretty good product!

Check it out HERE:

One thing this website does that is different from the others is heat mapping or color coding areas of higher activity from others with less or... no activity at all. The interface is straightforward as well. You can also view this on tablet and phone devices with some limitations.

The only issue I have is the same one I had with all of these products which is limited data sets. It seems that accumulating comprehensive data beyond a city or handful of cities is difficult.